Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic - download pdf or read online

By Raymond S. Nickerson

ISBN-10: 0805848983

ISBN-13: 9780805848984

ISBN-10: 0805848991

ISBN-13: 9780805848991

inability to imagine probabilistically makes one liable to various irrational fears and prone to scams designed to take advantage of probabilistic naiveté, impairs choice making lower than uncertainty, allows the misinterpretation of statistical details, and precludes serious assessment of chance claims. Cognition and Chance provides an outline of the knowledge had to steer clear of such pitfalls and to evaluate and reply to probabilistic occasions in a rational approach. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how strong people are at pondering probabilistically and the way constant their reasoning below uncertainty is with rules of mathematical information and chance thought. He studies facts that has been produced in researchers' makes an attempt to enquire those and related sorts of questions. Seven conceptual chapters deal with such themes as likelihood, likelihood, randomness, coincidences, inverse likelihood, paradoxes, dilemmas, and data. the remainder 5 chapters concentrate on empirical experiences of people' talents and barriers as probabilistic thinkers. issues contain estimation and prediction, notion of covariation, selection below uncertainty, and other people as intuitive probabilists.

Cognition and Chance is meant to entice researchers and scholars within the components of likelihood, facts, psychology, company, economics, choice conception, and social dilemmas.

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Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning by Raymond S. Nickerson

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